Who will win the Men’s Ashes is a question I have been posing to guests over the past three months. I may have spoken to one guest in late August so it may be a bit unfair on them as some things have changed since then. No Pat Cummins (309 Test wickets) and Josh Hazlewood (295 Test wickets) for the 1st Test for one, though Marnus Labuschagne has been in prime form in the Sheffield Sheild. Meanwhile, England have won their warm up game against the Lions and a lot has been said about their preparation in the Australian media and by former England stars.
What we do know is that Ollie Pope is set to bat at 3 and most likely England will not select a front-line spinner for Perth. As for the home side, I suspect Cameron Green will return to number 6 and Jake Weatherald and Brendan Doggett will make their debuts at the tender age of 31. I thought the Aussies always picked them young. How things have changed with only one player in their squad under 30.
My interviews with twenty-six guests revealed that Australia will retain the urn. Former players Rick McCosker and the show’s expert Roland Butcher both favoured the home side. However, the former England opener Denis Amiss and Mick Newell, the Nottinghamshire CCC Director of cricket were quietly confident and believed England could recapture the Ashes.
I’ve spoken to so many people in a short space of time I can’t honestly remember who went for which side. I haven’t forgotten the view of Simon Finch, Finchy, the Barmy Army trumpeter, who cheekily went for 5 nil England, a reverse McGrath. “I’d rather be positive and wrong, than miserable” said Finchy.
In Part 5 of my series Ken Jacobs, the former long-standing CEO at Cricket Victoria turned the tables on me. Perhaps going with my heart, I predicted 3/2 England. As I often say, Ben Stokes doesn’t do draws, only two during his reign. Five results are coming, which is often the case when England go down under. There have been 5 draws in the last 40 Ashes Tests in Australia, England winning only 6.
Why do I think 2025/26 could be different. Here are my six keys to success
Pace bowlers fitness
England have chosen a barrage of quick bowlers, seven if you include the skipper. Many guests thought rotation and the fitness of Archer and Wood was vital.
Archer has played two Tests in the past four years. Can he reproduce the magic of the 2019 English home summer when he grabbed 22 wickets and featured in that memorable duel with Steve Smith at Lord’s.
Mark Wood is we are told OK after his injury scare during the match against the Lions at Lilac Hill. He has not played since the Champions Trophy in February. Can he return to the form and more importantly the pace of 2021/22 down under and the home series of 2023.
Archer and Wood are I believe crucial for England to expose the frailties of the Aussie top order. Can they play together or is that too much of a risk. Whatever happens they will need to be carefully managed and rotated throughout the series. Brydon Carse and Gus Atkinson, who are likely to play at the Optus stadium, will get a lot of bowling.
Josh Tongue, who grabbed 21 wickets in the summer against India will most probably feature during the series and adds another dimension to the attack
The fitness of the pace bowlers through an intense Ashes battle will be crucial if England are to regain the urn.
Must win in Perth or Brisbane
Weather permitting, I cannot see a draw at either Perth or Brisbane, both cities have been graveyards for England. No win in Perth since the 1978 series when the home side was lacking their star players due to World Series Cricket, whilst the last victory in Brisbane came via an inspirational century by Ian Botham in 1986. Friday we will see the first Ashes Test at Perth’s Optus stadium, all previous Ashes Tests on the west coast were held at the WACA.
The last Test at the Optus Stadium in Perth saw 17 wickets fall on Day 1 when Australia played India. Is that what’s in store on Friday?
As for Brisbane, the Gabba is due to stage a pink ball Test. The Australians have a tremendous record in home pink ball Tests winning 12 out of 13.
England have to win one of the first two matches to have any chance of winning the Ashe. Two nil down and despite my hopeful prediction we could see another heavy series defeat.
With Pat Cummins and Josh Hazelwood missing the 1st Test do England have their best chance at the Optus stadium. A win I think would shake the Australian supporters. Remember England have on recent tours won the opening Test in India, Pakistan and New Zealand.
Ben’s fitness
Ben Stokes has not played a first class game since the 4th Test against India at Old Trafford in late July. He was England’s best bowler during the 2024 summer and took 20 wickets against India
Roland Butcher highlighted the necessity for him to be carefully managed when England are in the field. No easy job when Ben is the captain.
Without Ben Stokes, the side England loses balance. He is irreplaceable. Plus, his leadership skills are key. Captain Fantastic leads from the front with bat and ball. A dominant series by Ben Stokes with bat and ball must mean England will go a long way to winning the series,
Without him Harry Brook would make his debut as an England Test captain in an Ashes series down under, a tough ask.
Runs for Root
During my series Joe Root emerged as England’s key batter. He simply must score that first century in an Ashes Test down under for England to get enough runs and ultimately overs into the legs of the ageing Australian attack
To date Root has scored 892 runs at 35 in 14 Tests.
In 2025/26 Joe needs to score more than 400 runs for England to be successful
Top order runs for Crawley
Perhaps a strange one some of you will say but I firmly believe Zak Crawley is another key to England success.
He scored 480 runs in the 2023 home summer and has the capacity to score match winning scores and set the tone with his opening partner Ben Duckett or Ducket Man as Finchy prefers.
It might be a big if, but he can deliver on wickets which should help him then England has a much better chance.
Ruthless
Finally, it’s back to our regular cricket expert, the former England Test player Roland Butcher, who in ep 375 stressed England have to show a ruthless streak to beat the Aussies in their own back yard.
There cannot be any repeat of the collapse at The Oval in July when England lost their last 7 wickets for 70 runs and lost by 6 runs.
“We are going to find out if they have the stomach for the fight,” said Butcher. We certainly are Roland.
All I do know is that I have seen seven Ashes Tests down under. The current score, Australia 6 England 1 but that does include five successive defeats at the WACA.
Perhaps my heart is ruling my head. Who will win the Men’s Ashes? We will soon find out when the action starts at the Optus on Friday.
These are my six keys to success.
Stephen Wallis
We’re doomed. Hope I’m wrong
Whatever happens John it will be 1-1 or 2 nil down after Brisbane. No draw there.